Nobel Prize economists have turned statistics into information


Combining does not bring. Behind that love is an essential truth. For example, in January this year, the UK had a serious and one of the worst deaths in Covid. New Zealand did not die and there were few restrictions. However, no matter what the YouTube fan might say, blocking does not cause Covid waves. Covid waves cause disruption.

But while “connectivity is not the cause” is a necessary warning, when policymakers come to ask questions, there are not many answers.

For example: why do highly educated people have so much money? Is it because education is more profitable, or is it because the smart, talented people are doing well in school and at work?

Why does a rich place have so many foreign-born workers? Is it because immigrants promote money or because people move where money is scarce?

The stork area is also home to many young ones. Is it because the stork produces offspring or is it because the larger nations have a place for all to live?

The example of the stork and the infants is a warning, as I am describing in my book, How to Grow a Global Growth. In 1965, celebrant reader Darrell Huff told the U.S. Congress that the link between smoking and cancer is just as ridiculous as it is with storks and babies. It is a dangerous example of how simple a good skepticism it can be arrogant.

All of which explains why I was so excited to announce Monday of Nobel laureate’s economic prize. Winners, David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens, led the project on what came to be known as “transformational loyalty” in financial terms.

In the fight against real-world knowledge, it tempts economists to ignore and avoid important questions such as “Does education make money?” and “Are foreigners also promoting their own work?” Card, Angrist and Imbens showed the work that we can be very ambitious.

In 1992, New Jersey raised the minimum wage from $ 4.25 to $ 5.05 per hour. Would this make the people who sell expensive food more expensive to use? Card and Alan Krueger have seen natural experiments: eastern Pennsylvania is located near New Jersey, where the economy is similar, but Pennsylvania has not changed its low income. Card by Krueger comparing jobs in New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania, and found no indication that active sales were lost as low wages went up in New Jersey.

It was very rewarding, but perhaps the most important part was not the results, but the show that financiers can find answers to answer difficult questions.

Angrist and Krueger answered the question of access to education by looking at the state of education in the US. Consider two children, one born in late December and the other born a few weeks early in January. The December child starts school for a full year for the first time. However, both children are able to leave school legally on their 16th birthday, just a few weeks later. The difference seems small, but in 1991 Angrist and Krueger showed that Januaryware kids spent less time in school and earned less, too.

Obviously, only some children drop out of school at the age of 16; many do not. This is similar to natural experiments: instead of just giving them drugs and placebos, the natural experiments only confuse them, like the chance to drop out of school soon.

It’s a headline study, but Imbens, with Angrist, developed a tool to help researchers identify the positive relationships between natural experiments. Economics has been a part full of wisdom, and many of them are based on the Angrist-Imbens foundation.

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize is an exciting one. It is a reminder of suicide for Alan Krueger in 2019. Krueger co-authored several papers that were nominated by the Nobel committee.

It is a vivid illustration of the difference between the political landscape and the good work of researchers. For example, one of Card’s most popular papers deals with the most difficult topic in British politics today: would you raise the bar by banning foreigners? Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he can and will do so.

This date shows another story. Card learned Mariel boat, the departure of 125,000 people from Cuba to the US in 1980. Most of these people came and lived in Miami, and most were illiterate.

Although Miami’s unemployed population is growing at about 20% in a few months, Card found no indication that unemployed wages in Miami were depressing. Instead of manipulating the number of employees in a payroll, Miami businesses have found ways to recruit new employees.

With only one survey, but the Card’s work encouraged economists to reconsider simple types of visitors. Ample evidence now shows that strangers they have the potential to increase yields rather than suppress them.

The world is full of wonderful things, but it is not full of harsh temptations. It is never easy to take the false statistics to say that the blockchain triggers Covid. But it is not good to lose evidence altogether, to convince people that cigarettes are probably safe because communication is not a trigger.

We can do better. As Krueger put it: “The idea of ​​turning wealth into true science, where big doctrines can be rejected, is a GREAT, transformative idea.”

Exactly. It is possible to convert statistics into notifications. And we should try.

“Tim Harford”Fifty Factors That Made a Modern Treasure”It is now written on paper

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